2024 US Presidential Election: Expert Analyses and Predictions on Global Economic if Trump Wins

If Donald Trump were to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, several significant changes to the global economic landscape could be anticipated based on his previous policies and current campaign promises.

Trade Policies and Tariffs

Trump’s return could lead to a revival of protectionist trade policies, including substantial tariffs on imports. He has proposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, with even higher rates of up to 60% on Chinese goods[2][6]. These tariffs are intended to protect American jobs and industries by incentivizing domestic production. However, many economists argue that such tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices in the U.S., as importers typically pass these costs onto consumers[6]. Additionally, retaliatory measures from other countries could further disrupt global trade and supply chains, potentially reducing global GDP[3].

Economic Growth and Inflation

The economic impact of Trump’s policies could include slower GDP growth and increased inflation. Analysts predict that his proposed tariffs and tax cuts could hinder economic growth while increasing the national debt[3][6]. The combination of protectionist trade measures and tax cuts could lead to inflation rates rising significantly, with some estimates suggesting an increase to between 6% and 9.3% by 2026[6].

Environmental Policies

Trump’s stance on environmental issues could also have global implications. He has previously withdrawn the U.S. from international climate agreements and is expected to weaken climate change mitigation policies if re-elected[2]. This could result in higher greenhouse gas emissions from the U.S., impacting global efforts to combat climate change.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Global Relations

A second Trump presidency might see both challenges and opportunities for foreign direct investment (FDI). While deregulation and corporate tax incentives could attract investment in certain sectors like energy and defense, protectionist policies might discourage investment in industries reliant on global supply chains[8]. Trump’s approach could also strain international relations, particularly with China and the European Union, potentially leading to increased geopolitical tensions[1][8].

Security and Geopolitical Implications

Trump’s views on international security alliances, such as NATO, suggest a potential reduction in U.S. involvement abroad, which could lead European countries to increase their defense spending independently[1]. This shift in security dynamics might alter geopolitical stability in regions like Europe and Asia.

Overall, a Trump victory in 2024 would likely introduce significant changes to global economic policies, with potential repercussions for trade, environmental strategies, and international relations. These changes would create a complex landscape for both domestic and international stakeholders to navigate.

Citations:
[1] https://www.axa-im.com/investment-institute/macroeconomics/macroeconomic-research/us-2024-presidential-election-potential-global-impact
[2] https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-second-trump-presidency-mean-for-the-global-economy-239069
[3] https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/what-would-donald-trump-do-to-the-economy
[4] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-elections-2024-trump-victory-would-lead-to-an-economic-downturn-says-goldman-sachs/articleshow/113270664.cms
[5] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elections-offer-high-level-of-uncertainty-to-global-economic-outlook-imf-130046534.html
[6] https://time.com/7095898/donald-trump-economy-plan-2024/
[7] https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-threat-to-us-economy-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2024-09
[8] https://www.ocoglobal.com/general/how-a-trump-2024-victory-could-reshape-global-economic-development/
[9] https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/united-states-presidential-election-2024/